# Metro projections vs reality — multi-city, multi-year dataset

Built 2026-10-18 from a @reclaimchennai tweet on inflated metro DPR ridership
(https://x.com/reclaimchennai/status/2111700970795422185), whose chart is
Table 2A.5 of the IIT Delhi TRIP Centre × The Infravision Foundation white
paper (Tiwari & Jain, 2023).

## Files

| File | What it holds |
| --- | --- |
| `forecasts.csv` | Planning-stage DPR daily-ridership forecasts per city/phase, with horizon year + source (incl. both Chennai horizons: 7.57L/2016 and 15.69L/2026) |
| `trip-snapshot-2023.csv` | The tweet's chart verbatim — TRIP Centre Table 2A.5, 13 metros |
| `latest-reality-2023-26.csv` | Latest reported average daily ridership per city (2023–2026), each with period + source |
| `delhi-phase1-2006-09.csv` | Delhi Phase 1 actual vs projected, 2006–09 (UNEPCCC/UNFCCC 2011) |
| `lucknow-cag-fy2018-24.csv` | Lucknow N-S corridor: DPR vs actual, FY18–FY24 (CAG PA No. 12 of 2025, Table 5.1) |
| `nagpur-fy2022-24.csv` | Nagpur actuals FY22–FY24 + CAG pre/post-COVID averages vs DPR (via ORF special) |
| `delhi-network-uitp-fy18-20.csv` | Delhi/Mumbai/Bengaluru/Chennai network projections vs actuals FY18–FY20 (UITP Knowledge Brief, Nov 2021) |
| `delhi-forecast-revisions.csv` | Delhi's "projections for 2021" as revised 1995→2018 (15.7M → 4.1M) |
| `metro-projections.duckdb` | All of the above as queryable tables |
| `chart1-forecast-vs-reality-2026.png` | 13 metros: DPR forecast vs latest actual |
| `chart2-multiyear-trajectories.png` | Delhi Ph1 2006-09 · Lucknow FY18-24 · Nagpur FY22-24 |
| `chart3-delhi-forecast-revisions.png` | Delhi's shrinking 2021-horizon forecast |
| `sources/` | Archived primary PDFs (TRIP white paper, UITP brief + annexe, CAG Lucknow, UNEPCCC, Rajya Sabha AU863) |
| `build_dataset.py` | Regenerates all CSVs/duckdb/charts |

## Sources

- TRIP Centre, IIT Delhi × The Infravision Foundation, "A Framework for Selecting an Appropriate Urban Public Transport System in Indian Cities" (Tiwari & Jain, 2023) — Table 2A.5. https://tripc.iitd.ac.in/assets/publication/Urban-Transport-Project-White-Paper.pdf
- UITP India, "Performance of Indian Metro Systems" Knowledge Brief (Nov 2021) + methodology annexe. https://www.uitp.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/7/2025/04/Knowledge-Brief-November-2021.pdf
- CAG, Performance Audit No. 12 of 2025, Lucknow Metro (tabled 20 Feb 2026), Table 5.1. https://cag.gov.in/en/audit-report/details/123696
- CAG, Performance Audit No. 7 of 2026, Bengaluru Metro Ph 1&2 (tabled 10 Aug 2026) — farebox 22.72% of projection, 2016-17→2022-23.
- CAG, Performance Audit (Delhi), Report No. 9 of 2021 — FY20 actual 27.79L vs projected 53.47L/day (51.97%).
- MoHUA Rajya Sabha annexure AU863 (27 Jul 2026) — Chennai Ph1+Ext: DPR 15.69L (2026 horizon) vs actual 3.14L. https://sansad.in/getFile/annex/271/AU863_vLXf8k.pdf
- ORF Special, June 2025 (Nagpur chapter, CAG-sourced month-wise + FY ridership). https://www.orfonline.org/public/uploads/posts/pdf/20250618110512.pdf
- UNEPCCC, "Promoting Low Carbon Transport in India: Case Study of Metro Rails" (2014; UNFCCC 2011 data) — Delhi Phase 1 2006-09. https://unepccc.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/case-study-of-metro-final.pdf
- News for latest actuals: Daily Pioneer (Delhi CY2025), Deccan Herald (Bengaluru 2025), Deccan Chronicle (Hyderabad 2025), Indian Express (Pune 2025-26), DT Next / Metro Rail News / The Hindu (Chennai 2024-26), Wikipedia "Urban rail transit in India" (per-system annual totals w/ citations).

## Caveats (read before quoting)

1. **Counting definitions differ.** DMRC counts each line-boarding as a
   "passenger journey" from 2019 (a 2-line-change trip = 3 journeys, ~+50%
   inflation vs origin-destination counting; UITP annexe). CAG's 27.79L/day
   (FY20) counts station entries; DMRC's own FY20 figure was 57L/day
   "journeys". Same system, same year, 2x apart.
2. **Horizon mismatch is inherent to the TRIP table** (and our chart 1): the %
   compares the *original planning-stage forecast* against the *latest actual*,
   even if measured years after the forecast's horizon year. That is the point:
   most systems never catch up to the original number.
3. Baselines are whole-network today vs Phase-1-at-planning for most cities —
   another reason % of forecast understates absolute growth.
4. Calendar-year vs fiscal-year actuals are mixed; every row carries its
   period label.